Trump’s Diesel Deal Helps Putin’s PSYOP Campaign Exploit Western Democracies
The Architecture of Dread
Seeking to lower fuel prices ahead of the midterm elections, Donald Trump said he agreed to purchase up to 4.8 million tons of Russian diesel—just weeks after signing sweeping sanctions against Moscow.
According to the Associated Press, “The measure was a final legacy item for the late Sen. Lindsey Graham, R-S.C., a close ally and friend of the president who had just returned from Ukraine when he unexpectedly died in July. In the works for more than a year, the bill passed with large bipartisan margins: 86-11 in the Senate and 262-159 in the House.”
While 99% of traditional media are following the “news peg,” my focus here is how this “deal” not only demonstrates Trump again serving as Putin’s “useful idiot,” but how he is boosting the Russian leader’s PSYOP efforts against the West.
I frequently appear on European podcasts, and Putin’s PSYOP campaign is always part of our conversations.
By my reckoning, Putin’s program began shortly before Russia’s 2014 incursion and annexation of Crimea. Since then, Putin has conducted a “grey-zone” conflict with European democracies. In statecraft, the grey zone defines the murky territory between conventional war and true peace.
But look beneath the geopolitical jargon, and it becomes obvious that Putin has actually been running an asymmetric campaign of psychological attrition against open societies. In effect, he exploits legal ambiguity and vulnerabilities in European and open democracies to advance his and Russia’s interests.
In addition to meddling in the 2016 U.S. elections to advantage Trump, Russia is thought to have also committed numerous examples of physical sabotage and incursions on undersea and energy infrastructure.
They also are accused of using arson and making other attacks to disrupt Western logistics, defense manufacturing and supply chains. Further, Russia is believed to have employed cyber and electronic warfare on civilian navigation and communications systems, as well as on critical infrastructure.
In addition to the hard costs democracies have incurred as a result of these violations, arguably more important is that Putin’s malign actions have instilled low-grade, persistent, unease among Europeans and some Americans.
Putin’s objective is not only to disrupt critical infrastructure, but mainly to probe Western resolve, and weaken political unity across the NATO alliance. Specifically, to cultivate dread, cognitive fatigue, and strategic paralysis without ever presenting a singular target to rally against. In other words,
The grey-zone strategy allows Putin to assert dominance while maintaining plausible deniability. He is a miscreant hiding in the bushes hurling rocks at his neighbors.
Or perhaps worse.
Putin plays directly on the West’s fears of direct escalation or nuclear confrontation, he is trying to convince us that continued support for Ukraine directly compromises our existence. Heck, he supports Iran and Trump responds with servile loyalty.
Putin is skilled at other forms of psychological warfare, too. He is adept at cognitive and political subversion – whether it be disinformation campaigns to foster affective polarization, undermining trust in democratic institutions, or eroding domestic support for security commitments and military aid.
And he does this while right-wing parties vie for electoral power in places such as Germany and France.
Putin’s grey-zone attacks and Trump’s submission pressures the West into either overreacting in response, due to fear or anger – or “turning the other cheek” to achieve emotional peace and stability. Ultimately, however, ignoring the risk will make people in the West feel passive, impotent, and humiliated.
Russia’s actions have an inherent “divide and conquer” aspect to them. To respond, NATO must build political consensus across 32 allied nations. That is difficult to accomplish given that Putin’s PSYOP actions appear isolated, minor, or ambiguous.
This potentially leaves NATO members experiencing anxiety and friction with one another. Some may even question the credibility of the alliance as they try to cope with Russian aggression.
Eventually, Putin’s hostile actions may become normalized and regarded as routine background noise. In fact, the constant hum of crisis erodes democratic resilience and elevates political factions that advocate appeasement to avoid war.
Or, right—wing authoritarianism.
Western governments face the challenge of alerting their citizens to these acts of sabotage without provoking panic. If they fail in this regard, they would be granting Putin a major psychological victory.
Consequently, we in the U.S., don’t hear much about Putin’s grey-zone war. We mostly get the illusory truth effect of Trump’s repeated assertion that Russian interference in his elections “is a hoax.” I call bullshit.
Further, the authoritarian and servile Trump makes harmony and unanimity among western nations even more difficult. Putin knows this.
And Trump’s diesel deal is proof.